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The Future Of +15 Prices And Mysterious Shard

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  • ScarrletttScarrlettt
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    Pandaria
    Pandaria said:

    How did shippuu arrive at the 15% boost? Because from my observations on solo clear times its more like a 30% increase.


    Solo times arent accurate. There are many variables that play into it. Best way is to use his armory and check for overall power. Also players tend to get better and find faster ways to run a boss efficiently, which isnt affected by attack limit release.
  • PandariaPandaria
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    Fair enough
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 2, 2016
    Scarrlettt

    While theoretically speaking +15 lvl 90s shud come down, another thing to keep in mind is that our population is quite low and will continue to be due to the nature of nexon and just vindictus being an old game that simply cant keep up with newer games. As such, the number of +15 lvl 90 weapons wont be as common. But then again, since the population is low and gold generation is low due to all of these events and exchange shops, even if +15s were to pop up, the demand may not be there either which forces people to lower the prices. It really depends on the market, how desperate buyers and sellers are, and just luck. Gotta be selling at the right place and at the right time.

    Regarding "immense" boost from the attk limit, to give you perspective on how much boost it is, a full 2000 attack limit release weapon compared to 0 attack limit release weapon is about the same amount of additional damage difference from a +10 to a +14 (not including speed). This approximates to about a 15.6% dps increase from +10 to +14. My source: i recall Shippuu mentioning it early on in the Vindi Discord. Whether this fact is still true I am unsure of. But I was one of the two pioneers of the vindi discord and am rather credible in the vindi community. Even so, you can confirm with Shippuu who is definitely very credible just to make sure. i feel tho the number I gave is reasonable and shudnt be too far off.

    Whether you find a 15.6% increase immense or not is up to you. If you wanna break it down, i kno you need 3 mystery shard to boost attk limit by 50. So 2000/50 is 40 and 15.6/40 is .39. So for every 3 mystery shard, you boost ur overall dps by .39%. Those are the hard cold numbers

    I can't believe it, an educated response. I thought this thread would continue to be plagued by ridiculous statements suggesting Mysteries Shards are worth 0g and that it's 100% completely out of the realm of human stupidity to NPC vendor an oj item. I literally have no time and patience for people who make statements like that.

    Very good points you made in the starting paragraph. Those are very valid reasons, which can make the prediction exist within the realm of possibility. Also does depend on the +15 being sold, and how desperate the seller is. Another thing to add to the mix now is the new lvl 95 weapon information that popped up recently. This should cause some leverage(in 6 months atleast) for lower prices regarding lvl 90s.

    Exactly my point, immense is being used subjectively. I'm sure most players don't think +15.6% is an immense increase, but if you add the extra numbers up throughout the raid, it will become a much faster raid. Especially if it's a full 8 man party of +15.6% increased players. Same idea as the 10% extra damage rune. Depending on the skill, it can increase big damage moves by 5K or more. BB is one of them. I would imagine though that a 120 Shard upgrade on a +15 weapon would be higher than 15.6%, considering a +15 already has the additional damage stat maxed and with a 10% damage increase awakening skill. I won't argue it though, since Shippuu is doing the math on it and I'm not. Yes Shippuu is very credible.

    Thank you for the cold hard numbers and valid points.
  • HallyHally
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    On a 5 minute S3 raid where you are amazing and do 40% damage, a 16% damage boost for just yourself would shave less than 20 seconds from the raid kill time if everyone else play the same as before. Grind 15 raids, and you saved 1 raid worth to time. It will be even less in practice due to time spent filling boat, server failing ect. But lets just assume, for simplicity's sake, that for every 15 raids you do, you get 1 "free".

    Just how many extra raid's worth of time it would take to pay for those mysterious shards? Even if the shards are only 10m each, you'd need to raid thousands of times before the "bonus raids" actually pay for the shards. New gear that will obsolete your old ones will likely come around by that time.

    Shaving 20 seconds per raid is not "immense". You will probably not even notice it if you don't look at dps numbers.

    It gets even worse on grind maps. You are one shotting trash with or without the limit release. Most of your time will still be spent from running from point A to point B, and not actually fighting. shaving a few seconds off a <1min boss fight isn't going to pay for itself anytime soon.

    --------------

    PS: unless the damage formula has been changed, your effective attack when capped is about 10k, with +900 from a fixed offset, +1875 from 300 additional damage stat, for a total of 12775. +2000 increase from limit release would end up being a 15.65% increase. The real attack cap is a little lower than +10k of monster def, so the increase from maxed attack limit release would probably end up at 16% ish.
    HustlingMochiSweet
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 2, 2016
    Hally
    Hally said:

    On a 5 minute S3 raid where you are amazing and do 40% damage, a 16% damage boost for just yourself would shave less than 20 seconds from the raid kill time if everyone else play the same as before. Grind 15 raids, and you saved 1 raid worth to time. It will be even less in practice due to time spent filling boat, server failing ect. But lets just assume, for simplicity's sake, that for every 15 raids you do, you get 1 "free".

    Just how many extra raid's worth of time it would take to pay for those mysterious shards? Even if the shards are only 10m each, you'd need to raid thousands of times before the "bonus raids" actually pay for the shards. New gear that will obsolete your old ones will likely come around by that time.

    Shaving 20 seconds per raid is not "immense". You will probably not even notice it if you don't look at dps numbers.

    It gets even worse on grind maps. You are one shotting trash with or without the limit release. Most of your time will still be spent from running from point A to point B, and not actually fighting. shaving a few seconds off a <1min boss fight isn't going to pay for itself anytime soon.

    --------------

    PS: unless the damage formula has been changed, your effective attack when capped is about 10k, with +900 from a fixed offset, +1875 from 300 additional damage stat, for a total of 12775. +2000 increase from limit release would end up being a 15.65% increase. The real attack cap is a little lower than +10k of monster def, so the increase from maxed attack limit release would probably end up at 16% ish.</p>


    Wow another one. Finally getting some really good responses tonight. You mind posting the math behind your "less than 20 seconds" statement? As far as your view on immense is, I'll gladly take 1 free raid after 15. Especially during this coin event. Also keep in mind that some players will cap this for bragging rights or competitive 1st place DPS scoring. There is atleast one out there. They're just being financially strategic on how to do it.
  • ScarrletttScarrlettt
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    You also need to consider nemhain where stat capping is essential as that raid is incredibly hard with no mercs or goddess graces. Attk limiting helps there alot due to the difficulty whereas in casual raids not so much. You cud use the argument that nemhain is limited to 3-4 runs a week and only one single raid. But considering that those who can afford attk limit hve nothing else to achieve since they are fully capped on their character, attk limiting is the only thing left to do. Its not necessary and its not even something that can be reasoned with logic, its just another goal that we as players can work towards by grinding (or buying) our ass off. While your argument is very much valid Hally, those who seek attk limit dont really care and do it for status
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 2, 2016
    Those are good points as well.

    I'll reiterate the whole point I brought up the Mysterious Shard to begin with. I was predicting that the cost of 120 Mysterious Shards should exceed the price of +15 lvl 90 weapons greatly. I already provided the math behind it, in my initial post. Even at 50mil a piece, 120 Mysterious Shards would exceed the price of a +15 lvl 90 that sold for 5 billion, greatly. In my mind though, even 50 million a piece seems too cheap. Now why would I think that? Because running 16 man is very unappealing to me personally. I've already stated many reasons why they're unappealing to run in an earlier post. I also gave out new constraints the Royal Raids have, farm wise, compared to the old days of 400mil Blue Tears.

    Now if the price of the Mysterious Shard were set at 100mil or above, it would entice me to run it, even if it was long and awful. So many things are now obtainable from the Seal Shop. What high value items aren't? Bracelets(Especially Silver), Eochaid Essense, Superior Gems. Now wouldn't you think Mysterious Shards would be higher on the list than Superior Gems? Given that running Niflheim now is a lot less painful then it was, and more players are running it now.

    My overall point is it should be worth more, because it's awful to farm, and I know players are looking for them. It's all about who will budge first, the seller or the buyer. Another thing to consider is it is highly unlikely someone will buy all 120 Mysterious Shards at the exact same price. They might get lucky in the beginning and later have to pay a higher price. They might be 10 Mysterious Shards away from completion and start paying X times the amount they would normally. A lot of factors to consider.
  • HallyHally
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    edited December 3, 2016
    Take a hypothetical boss with 3,600,000 hp. You do 40% over 5 mins (300 seconds), rest of the party do 60%. In this case, you are doing 1,440,000 hp over 300 seconds, with a dps of 4,800 per second. Rest of the party would be doing 2,160,000 hp over 300 seconds, with a dps of 7,200 per second.

    Boss kill time = boss hp/(your dps + party dps)

    If your dps go up by 16%
    new boss kill time = boss hp/(your old dps*1.16 + party dps)
    = 3,600,000/(4,800*1.16 + 7,200)
    = 3,600,000/(5,568 + 7,200)
    = 3,600,000/(12,768)
    =~282 seconds

    Your +16% dps just reduced the raid time from 300s down to 282 seconds, an improvement of only 18s.
    -----
    EDIT: if mysterious shards are 100m each, a 120 shard weapon will not earn enough extra money to pay for the shard cost even if you farm 10 hours per day for 10 years straight with our current poop drop rates and drop sale values.

    As for the nimhain raid.. it'll almost certainly be cheaper to just make a new defensive set of gear that gets you to 18k def; where your chance of dying is pretty much nil.

    In the end, if you are not after boasting rights, its just not worth the cost. This is something purely there for the few that want prestige.
    Hustling
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 3, 2016
    Thank you for posting the math on it. Do you have a +15 lvl 90 that is doing the 40%?

    Just for fun, lets say there are 7 other players geared like you with the same 40% damage in 300 seconds. That would be 5,568 dps times 8 players times 300 seconds, equaling 13,363,200 total damage in 300 seconds. Now obviously that is a bit higher than your boss hp example, so lets bring it down to the 3,600,000 hp based boss. 5,568 dps times 8 players equals 44,544 dps from the 8 players total. The boss will be dead in 80 seconds(1 minute and 20 seconds).

    For further fun, most hosts know by now that waiting for 7 players can be long at times. Sometimes longer than the raid itself. So using the same example, lets say 4 players show up relatively quickly. That's 5 players altogether, boss dies in 2 minutes and 9 seconds. Lets say 2 players show up, that's 3 total players, boss dies in 3 minutes 35 seconds.

    That example applies to what it is you are farming. There are many ways to make millions and billions in this game. Very financially savvy players can make it up in much less time I'm sure.


    I'll also throw this out. I'm not sure if KR has confirmed this, but I would imagine that the Mysterious Shards would work in lvl 95 weapons. Reason why is I know they are working on a method that returns spent Mysterious Shards in lvl 90 weapons. How much it would return I don't know. The point though is if they do work in lvl 95 weapons, then wouldn't it likely be a reoccurring feature in future weapons? This would mean that the Mysterious Shard is an investment for future weapons, such as the lvl 95 weapons, and would hold it's value to players collecting all 120. I'm sure some players have thought of this already and are collecting 120 Mysterious Shards to pump immediately into +15 lvl 95 weapons, when they release.
  • TradespotTradespot
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    The attack limit release is extremely costly,yet not a bad thing to get if you are already maxed in invested in let's say 1 or maybe 2 characters only.There was calculations applied to party scenarios but from a soloer prospective you will definitely cut some decent time and yes soloing raids gives you more shots @getting rank 7 scrolls.

    You can easely recognize them on the mega chat when they sell 2-4 rank 7 scrolls a week.

    Even in party mode thoe,not all boats are cleared fast and new content will be eventually released.Those content will take a respectable amount of time to be cleared @first and having a little boost will help.


    If it's a weapon that you will get rid of as soon as the new stats plateau comes in,it might not worth it but if you intend to keep it for long i don't see why not.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As for the prices,well it's inevitably going at some point to lower.There is other variables to consider like some events for example.

    Back than making a pirate set was a pain because the fangs where rather rare and they where selling at high prices.It all went down during the pouch event and never got as high as it used to be.

    Same thing with the +10/15 coupon event.There has been so much supply of +12 and up inserted in the server that almost everybody where set on weapons after a little while so than the demand lowered significantly and the weapons became much more difficult to sell.Event went by and the prices went up a little but nothing like it used to be.

    I also think that these kind of events and also features such as the seal shop update helps to close the gap between the players that have more gold and the ones that have less.Who knows what other changes will be incorporated in the game in the next months...

    There will still be stuff that are going to be hard to obtain for players that are more casual such as enchanted gear to cap the balance,but at least now it's less trouble to simply get a+10 weapon.
    Hustling
  • ScarrletttScarrlettt
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    edited December 3, 2016
    @Hally That math is nice and all but I doubt anyone will go that far to calculate and to justify why they will do attack limit release. Its the same reason why people go for +15. Its boring to just stay put with the same gear for so long when you can have that couple seconds of uncertainty, excitement and progression. Nobody goes and calculates "okay Im gonna finish this raid 5 seconds faster if I +12 my +11 weapon." And nobody will actually calculate how much time they spent raiding or if they were efficient. I mean hell, Ive been raids where we have to wait for one dude off doing something to join the boat. Am I gonna start wagering in my head "oh boy is it more profitable for me to leave and join some other boat that could be taking off or tough it out and stay on this one?" Thats too much effort to think, i just wanna play and have fun. This gearing and enhancing and attk limiting Is just a sort of progression that mmo's are known for. Constant grinding and leveling that for some are fun. Personally I could care lesss as I have stopped gearing for months. My luck has been very bad but you kno wat, im satisfied with what I have and the characters i do hve geared (even if its not spectacular).

    The only difference between +15 and attk limit is that +15 can be done with a click of a button but has a chance to lose it all whereas attack limit is expensive and slow but guaranteed evenutally. The logic is fine but I think you are reading too much into it. Of course its not financially not worth to do it but people enjoy seeing those perfect epeen stats on their screen. Why do people go for titles? I believe I've seen you in game with 500+ titles. What do titles do economically? Its definitely time consuming and offers very minimal benefits stat wise (couple wil and str and int to get that 1 crit or 100-200 attk). Its status and trying to argue why attk limit release is like saying title farming is also pointless yet alot of people including you do it. No offense, dont take this as an attack, I am just trying to give you perspective.

    Nemhain has one hit kill moves that ignore defense and you can only tank so much and for so long. Its a tradeoff of doing massive damage to finish the raid asap before you prolong it and make a mistake. It would be a shame and frustrating that you last for so long due to high defense only to make a couple of mistakes at the end and die instantly because you couldnt do enough dps in time before you got fatigued from playing so long.
  • TradespotTradespot
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    edited December 3, 2016
    Pandaria
    Pandaria said:

    Fair enough

    5:36 No damage pot



    2:28 With damage pot


    Both with Full SP at start,focus stim and stamina pots used^^


    With trans,irrelevant but just for the record

    Hustling
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 3, 2016
    Tradespot
    Tradespot said:

    The attack limit release is extremely costly,yet not a bad thing to get if you are already maxed in invested in let's say 1 or maybe 2 characters only.There was calculations applied to party scenarios but from a soloer prospective you will definitely cut some decent time and yes soloing raids gives you more shots @getting rank 7 scrolls.

    You can easely recognize them on the mega chat when they sell 2-4 rank 7 scrolls a week.

    Even in party mode thoe,not all boats are cleared fast and new content will be eventually released.Those content will take a respectable amount of time to be cleared @first and having a little boost will help.


    If it's a weapon that you will get rid of as soon as the new stats plateau comes in,it might not worth it but if you intend to keep it for long i don't see why not.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As for the prices,well it's inevitably going at some point to lower.There is other variables to consider like some events for example.

    Back than making a pirate set was a pain because the fangs where rather rare and they where selling at high prices.It all went down during the pouch event and never got as high as it used to be.

    Same thing with the +10/15 coupon event.There has been so much supply of +12 and up inserted in the server that almost everybody where set on weapons after a little while so than the demand lowered significantly and the weapons became much more difficult to sell.Event went by and the prices went up a little but nothing like it used to be.

    I also think that these kind of events and also features such as the seal shop update helps to close the gap between the players that have more gold and the ones that have less.Who knows what other changes will be incorporated in the game in the next months...

    There will still be stuff that are going to be hard to obtain for players that are more casual such as enchanted gear to cap the balance,but at least now it's less trouble to simply get a+10 weapon.

    That's interesting about the higher chance for good loot during solo runs. Nice incentive for very good players. I'm still banking on Mysterious Shards being able to be used for lvl 95 weapons(and maybe higher), so it will be interesting to see how the price fluctuates when the information comes out.

    Only thing I'd add is Boss HP is scalable per player in S2/S3 up to 4 players. It doesn't increase after that. So solo players are fighting a lower hp boss compared to a higher 4 player hp boss.



    Scarrlettt

    @Hally That math is nice and all but I doubt anyone will go that far to calculate and to justify why they will do attack limit release. Its the same reason why people go for +15. Its boring to just stay put with the same gear for so long when you can have that couple seconds of uncertainty, excitement and progression. Nobody goes and calculates "okay Im gonna finish this raid 5 seconds faster if I +12 my +11 weapon." And nobody will actually calculate how much time they spent raiding or if they were efficient. I mean hell, Ive been raids where we have to wait for one dude off doing something to join the boat. Am I gonna start wagering in my head "oh boy is it more profitable for me to leave and join some other boat that could be taking off or tough it out and stay on this one?" Thats too much effort to think, i just wanna play and have fun. This gearing and enhancing and attk limiting Is just a sort of progression that mmo's are known for. Constant grinding and leveling that for some are fun. Personally I could care lesss as I have stopped gearing for months. My luck has been very bad but you kno wat, im satisfied with what I have and the characters i do hve geared (even if its not spectacular).

    The only difference between +15 and attk limit is that +15 can be done with a click of a button but has a chance to lose it all whereas attack limit is expensive and slow but guaranteed evenutally. The logic is fine but I think you are reading too much into it. Of course its not financially not worth to do it but people enjoy seeing those perfect epeen stats on their screen. Why do people go for titles? I believe I've seen you in game with 500+ titles. What do titles do economically? Its definitely time consuming and offers very minimal benefits stat wise (couple wil and str and int to get that 1 crit or 100-200 attk). Its status and trying to argue why attk limit release is like saying title farming is also pointless yet alot of people including you do it. No offense, dont take this as an attack, I am just trying to give you perspective.

    Nemhain has one hit kill moves that ignore defense and you can only tank so much and for so long. Its a tradeoff of doing massive damage to finish the raid asap before you prolong it and make a mistake. It would be a shame and frustrating that you last for so long due to high defense only to make a couple of mistakes at the end and die instantly because you couldnt do enough dps in time before you got fatigued from playing so long.

    It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that someone would do those calculations, since so many calculations have been presented already. I will agree that most players would not do them. Either way, I get what you're trying to say. I personally do wager profitability, if a boat is taking too long to fill. That is why some players will eventually leave, if enough time has passed for them waiting.

    Good points though on everything else.
  • HallyHally
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    Sad thing is.. I actually do think that way in raids. If a boat takes forever to launch, or the raid takes a long time; I will leave and go solo or join another one next time.

    I do titles mainly because it gives me motivation to actually kill something. Otherwise I'd just end up standing infront of the marketplace board all day if no friend/guildy ask for help with something. I run ein lacher titles because it's the only way for me to reach nemhain caps without getting scammed by videk.

    As for adding def for Nemhain... you don't actually lose that much dps. 2x enlight/enthu -> 2x mem/exped, 2x echo -> 2x armadilo, 2x fast/white kitty -> 1x warlord/exp erg core. That's all you need to get ~3.5k def to the typical high speed low def build. You add 3.5k def and chop 15 speed, lose nothing else. Dropping from 90 to 75 speed isn't going to make your run that much longer. Personally, I tire out from being focused on making zero mistakes far faster than I tire out from playing too long while taking a few hits.

    ------------
    @Hustling
    I cannot do that on my main (arisha), she just doesn't have the speed scaling to pull it off. My +13 scythe on s2 (where I don't have poop crit) gets to ~35%, if the raid actually last that long (which usually doesn't). I can do it on a slow kraken with delia, but I'm nowhere near skilled enough to do it in a real raid with her.
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 3, 2016
    It basically all comes down to different preferences, perspectives, and personal choices. Things will be weighed and viewed differently, it's a fact of life. Doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong or sad, depending on the situation.

    So you're saying that your 40% isn't a +15 lvl 90 weapon? Depending on the +15 lvl 90 weapon, character, and player. I'm sure the difference could go beyond 20 seconds.
  • HallyHally
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    edited December 3, 2016
    40% is just a hypothetical number that most characters will not reach even under ideal conditions short of using damage pot, with a stat capped +15. If you are not reaching 40% before the release, it'll make an even smaller difference. If you are over 40% before the release, it'll make a bigger difference.

    My +15 is only crit capped for s2, where I am unable to reach 40% on arisha if the raid does last 5 mins.

    Regarding solo drop rates... I never noticed it. Hundreds of solo'd raids, and not a single scroll or orange.
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 3, 2016
    I'd rather deal with actual numbers, than hypothetical numbers. I was under the assumption it was an actual tested number. Hopefully someone good with a +15 lvl 90 can share some actual numbers.

    Actually... @Tradespot, do you know if that 5:36 no damage pot Regina solo was with a +15 lvl 90 that had no 120 Mysterious Shard upgrade in it?
  • TradespotTradespot
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    edited December 3, 2016
    I think it is.There was a Ein Lach run posted 3 days before the 5:37 clear and they had a+15 with Bloodlust instead of Judgment now.

    The longer video was with 500 attack release.
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited December 3, 2016
    It says 500 Att limit release in the video, so I guess we can still play with it. It's 1/4 of 15.6%, which is 3.9%, so 11.7% left to increase. Regina in that solo has 2,250,000 hp, according to the Vindictus Wiki. 4 seconds till the 1st hit and death at 5:34, so using 5:30 as the time. That's atleast 2,250,000 damage in 330 seconds, 6,818 damage per second. 6,818 times 11.7% is 797.7, rounding to 798. New dps is 7,615.7, rounding to 7,616. New time is 295 seconds(4 minutes and 55 seconds). Raid is 35 seconds less with 90 more Mysterious Shards added to the upgrade.

    This is based on a Scythe Evie, I'm sure other characters and weapons could do it in less time. I'm going to parrot what I did before, given these new numbers.

    Just for fun, lets say there are 7 other players like this Scythe Evie. That would be 7,616 dps times 8 players times 330 seconds, equaling 20,106,240 total damage in 330 seconds. 4+ man Regina hp is 5,100,000, full 8 man dps is 60,928. The boss will be dead in 83 seconds(1 minute and 23 seconds).

    For further fun, most hosts know by now that waiting for 7 players can be long at times. Sometimes longer than the raid itself. So using the same example, lets say 3 players show up relatively quickly. That's 4 players altogether, boss dies in 2 minutes and 47 seconds. Lets say 2 players show up, that's 3 total players, boss hp is now 3,900,000. Boss dies in 2 minutes 50 seconds. Duo run is 3 minutes 16 seconds.

    If 35 seconds were reduced from the raid using 90 more Mysterious Shards, then you could say each Mysterious Shard reduces it by 0.38 seconds. That means the already implemented 30 Mysterious Shard upgrade saved him 11.4 seconds. Time of completion without the 500 Att limit release would've probably been 5:19. A full 120 Mysterious Shard upgrade would save 45.6 seconds overall, given this scenario.

    Depending on the +15 lvl 90 weapon, the character, and the player. The time saved could probably exceed 45.6 seconds.
  • ScarrletttScarrlettt
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    edited December 3, 2016
    40% is something a gun kai cud do in s3 raids or kraken with an average party. If you have a super stacked party, 40% done by a single individual will never be acheived no matter the attk limit or the class used. Alternatively, the longer raid goes the stronger arisha and kai become in terms of dps they can do. I kno from experience that 40% in regina can be pulled by gun kai in a full party if the run is at least 6-7 minutes long. Any longer and he will prolly do 50%+