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The Future Of +15 Prices And Mysterious Shard

HustlingHustling
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edited November 28, 2016 in General Discussion
7 billion is the highest I've seen a lvl 90 +15 weapon go for. 5 Billion is the lowest I've seen one go for. This was back when oj weapon prints went for 200mil. So for 200mil, and maybe 2mil for secondary purples, you could craft a lvl 90 weapon and gamble it with fergus. If you break that down to the highest and lowest +15 buys, that I know of, it comes out to 35 to 47 weapons crafted at a 200mil price point per piece.

If you read this far, you're probably wondering why it matters. It matters because now you can make the same purple oj prim weapon for basically free. Completely free if you use seals for all the mats. 1 to 2 mil a piece, if you buy purple secondaries. Lets keep this though around gold. Oj weapon prints are now 25 to 50mil on the mp, depending on the weapon print name. A 200Mil oj weapon print times 35 is 7 billion. A 50Mil oj weapon print times 35 is 1.75 billion.

I'm not saying +15 lvl 90 weapons will now cost 1.75 billion, but I am making a prediction that +15 lvl 90s will average 2 to 3 billion in 6 months; if prices remain consistent as they are now. There should also be a bigger surge in +15 lvl 90s in 6 months. +15s are still rare and there are still players with massive stores of gold, so it'll still be high currently, but gradually the price will decline over the months.

Onto the Mysterious Shard. For those that don't know, Mysterious Shard is the new Royal Raid drop that is used to increase the att limit of lvl 90 weapons. You need 120 of these to cap out on it, and the damage gained from it is immense. Currently some players are having trouble selling it, since they are getting lowball offers of 20 to 30mil. This stat/mat is the new endgame for those with +15 lvl 90 weapons. This mat should be priced at atleast 100mil, given it's rarity. Lets say though that players are selling these for 20 to 50 mil. 20 times 120 is 2.4 billion, and 50 times 120 is 6 billion. At 100mil a piece, it'll be 12 billion. 120 Mysterious Shards will be greater than or equal to +15 lvl 90 weapon prices.

I used 20mil and 50mil as examples, I highly doubt players will sell it for that much. Especially since these are royal raids we are talking about that host 16 players max now. Back when Blue tears were 400mil a piece in 24 man, how many of those did you see? Imagine trying to even collect 120 Blue tears back then, and that was with 8 more players per raid max with 3 to 4 runs per day. We have 8 less max players per run, 2 to 3 less runs per day, a much harder raid given the daily raid pick, higher chance to fail or quit a raid, and a much lower player base from the numbers in the Blue tear days.

Point is these Mysterious Shards will not sell cheap, if players are smart.




TLDR;: I predict in 6 months that +15 lvl 90s will range between 2 and 3 billion. 120 Mysterious Shards should exceed the price of +15 lvl 90 weapons greatly.


Other predictions for +15 lvl 90 weapon prices in 6 months:

20% max reduction. Using the base numbers, it'll be 4 billion to 5.6 billion for +15 lvl 90 weapons in 6 months.

Comments

  • jjXjjX
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    Analysis is fine and dandy, just want to add my important disclaimer.

    For many people, 50m now is not the same as 100m later.
    So it's not about people being smart or not smart.
    People are desperate. Desperate to participate in Material Synthesis & Free Scroll event...so they (we) need the gold now.
  • HustlingHustling
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    If you sold one already, feel free to list the price.
  • NytsuyaNytsuya
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    The problem I have with mysterious shards is that they came out way too soon. If we had shard upgrading a month prior it would make more sense.

    As it is now no one can sell the shards because NO ONE CAN USE THEM with the prerequisite being a MAXED out shard. Couple that with needing 3 of the darn things for a pathetic +50 boost makes it even more unappealing to people who CAN use them.


    Now moving on to shard maxing. This entire process is obscenely expensive. The cheapest/quickest shard to max is a Light weight with just 2 upgrades if you got a fairly common 20/4 roll. But those 2 upgrades if you purchase all the mats will run you 70+ Million gold. The alternative being, farming the mats yourself. Which will take forever.

    Now since most of us do not have 70mil just lying around.. we should all be farming for the mats now... only there's an event going on encouraging you to do raids instead...



    To make a long story short, Mysterious shards will not be 100m+. They will plainly just not exist.

    As more shards that no one can use enters the market that no one is ready for... it's value will be driven right into the ground. To the point where running these 20-30 min grueling slogfest raids will just not be worth the effort.

    No one running the raid = No shards on the market.

    It's already taking several megaphones just to barely fill Royal Siglint... the easiest one of the bunch..

    Hate to say it but, Nexon really dropped the ball on this one/Rant
  • HallyHally
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    Sorry to say, but the damage gain from attack limit raise is not "immense". It is actually insignificant enough that it will not save you enough time in raids or grinds to ever pay for the cost. It exists only for bragging rights and nothing else. I doubt there's enough people willing to pay that much for mysterious shards to keep the price that high, for something that does so little.
    MochiSweet
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited November 28, 2016
    That's an incredibly lazy statement to make. You can't say that for sure, unless you throw some numbers down to back it up. Plus your definition of "immense" might not add up to hardcore players. Max out the att limit release and run some testing, then start making statements. I'll agree with players doing it for bragging rights. You'd be surprised how many billions have been saved for it.



    Nytsuya
    Nytsuya said:

    The problem I have with mysterious shards is that they came out way too soon. If we had shard upgrading a month prior it would make more sense.

    As it is now no one can sell the shards because NO ONE CAN USE THEM with the prerequisite being a MAXED out shard. Couple that with needing 3 of the darn things for a pathetic +50 boost makes it even more unappealing to people who CAN use them.


    Now moving on to shard maxing. This entire process is obscenely expensive. The cheapest/quickest shard to max is a Light weight with just 2 upgrades if you got a fairly common 20/4 roll. But those 2 upgrades if you purchase all the mats will run you 70+ Million gold. The alternative being, farming the mats yourself. Which will take forever.

    Now since most of us do not have 70mil just lying around.. we should all be farming for the mats now... only there's an event going on encouraging you to do raids instead...



    To make a long story short, Mysterious shards will not be 100m+. They will plainly just not exist.

    As more shards that no one can use enters the market that no one is ready for... it's value will be driven right into the ground. To the point where running these 20-30 min grueling slogfest raids will just not be worth the effort.

    No one running the raid = No shards on the market.

    It's already taking several megaphones just to barely fill Royal Siglint... the easiest one of the bunch..

    Hate to say it but, Nexon really dropped the ball on this one/Rant

    Agreed. They should have had the att uncap and those shards when they revamped 24 man(now 16 man). Instead they decided to make the raid extremely grueling to run on release, with no att uncap, and gave you +1 extra raid to enjoy their insanity.

    Right, players are expected to max out everything before preceding to att limit release. It's expensive, if you don't know how to farm it. Depends on the "people". You'd be surprised what players are willing to do to max stats and get every edge possible to see their name pop up at the end of a raid.

    I know that. Good reference for players who don't.

    Are you really speaking for most players? Even if you made a poll to see how many players currently have 70 mil, it wouldn't account for the players that have saved billions up for this event.

    That remains to be seen. Not saying it won't happen, but give it a few months.

    No one running the raid = No shards on the market = extreme rarity = more money for said item = your point of people eventually not caring = Vindictus addicts that will eventually care

    Wow, you really think Siglint is the easiest? I wasted my time responding to this.

    Now that I'll agree on 100%.
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited November 28, 2016
    Keep two things in mind about the Mysterious Shard currently. There are none on the mp, and the offers players are getting from mega selling it are low balls. Players that have stocked billions of gold are financially savvy. To make billions, you save billions. Get Hustled.
    BloodAngel
  • ikeviikevi
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    edited November 28, 2016
    Hustling
    Hustling said:


    Wow, you really think Siglint is the easiest? I wasted my time responding to this.
    Honestly he likely is now. The Stone phase doesn't heal anymore. All in all he is likely the one sitting in the same spot the longest for you to dps. (Lako is a close second, but he is out of reach ~25% of the time spitting/going underground etc.)

    As for folks thinking it is tough to max shards... Well I had saved enough to max most of my weapons shards on my main. I know others that had saved enough mats to max all their alt's weapons too. (And it is really easy to max Keen and Lightweight.) The orange shard breakdown made leather/cloth the commodity to get. So I don't know if the royal raid drops are inflated or underpriced right now.
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited November 28, 2016
    He still flies though and Evies can group all 3 spiders together for massive splash damage. I'm talking 200K+ BB for hitting all three in one shot. Fastest spider run was 10mins, and that was with two hyper Evie carries and 4 to 5 +12 to +14 weapon players.

    Exactly. It comes down to not being informed about how to farm/get it properly.
  • DesireOfMineDesireOfMine
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    edited November 28, 2016
    If it's about +15 weapons, the price won't drop as you expect... because of enhancing costs. Only not enhanced weapons will be super cheap, but +10-15 weapons will basically keep their value... well, it may drop a bit, but not as much as you 'predict' (maybe something like 20% max.).

    Argument 1: When new lvl items are introduced, previous generation of weapons (currently 80 lvl for example) get's very cheap, yet +15 weapons keep 50% value comparatively to new +15 weapon. The reason is because they have still pretty good stats and to make them you would still need to spend quite a lot of money on enhancing. Demand of these items increases its price. So in case of the highest lvl weapons, demand is even higher because these are 'current best' items in game... other words they will keep high value.

    Argument 2: I have access to an account on Korean server and i log in to check prices from time to time, to see how certain things affect market/economy. Craft parts and not enhanced weapons are really cheap in there, however enhanced weapons like +10-15 keep their value high as i stated.
    Hustling
  • ArishaLArishaL
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    More threads for encouraging people to be happy with +12 instead off going for +15 and quitting pls.
    NotHerAgainDesireOfMineNessaEsperThePharaohPixelPantsuShizukaaBloodAngelArellaRothCatAngel
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited November 28, 2016
    I'm working on it.



    DesireOfMine

    If it's about +15 weapons, the price won't drop as you expect... because of enhancing costs. Only not enhanced weapons will be super cheap, but +10-15 weapons will basically keep their value... well, it may drop a bit, but not as much as you 'predict' (maybe something like 20% max.).

    Argument 1: When new lvl items are introduced, previous generation of weapons (currently 80 lvl for example) get's very cheap, yet +15 weapons keep 50% value comparatively to new +15 weapon. The reason is because they have still pretty good stats and to make them you would still need to spend quite a lot of money on enhancing. Demand of these items increases its price. So in case of the highest lvl weapons, demand is even higher because these are 'current best' items in game... other words they will keep high value.

    Argument 2: I have access to an account on Korean server and i log in to check prices from time to time, to see how certain things affect market/economy. Craft parts and not enhanced weapons are really cheap in there, however enhanced weapons like +10-15 keep their value high as i stated.

    This is an excellent response. A disagreement backed by actual data and numbers. You could also argue that since mat return has been removed, it'll lead to less instant restart enhancing. Thank you for that insight. I respect that prediction, and we'll see how it plays out in 6 months. It'll be interesting revisiting this by then.

    I'll update the main post with your prediction. By the way, have you been monitoring the status of Mysterious Shard prices and availability in KR? I know they have a much higher and active player base, but I'm curious as a comparison.
  • desertoflamedesertoflame
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    Well I craft and sell a few +11 and +12 OJ Regina/ term weps as a hobby
    After the update I have been selling +11s for around 250m and +12s for 500m-600m, before the update it was 400m for +11 and 800m for +12.
    Ive seen +15 lvl 80s sell for a Bill so I'de assume +13 lvl 90s probably sell 1-1.2b still.
    And I am happy with +12, boomed to many too want to continue for +13 xD, RIP friend who boomed 3 +12s today and quit.
  • TamagoTamago
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    edited November 28, 2016
    +15 90s on West have already been going for 3-3.5b for a while now. I bought a +15 Regina Glaive over a year ago for 3.5b and there were some other weapons that sold for around that much as well (chains, staff, etc.)
  • HustlingHustling
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    edited November 29, 2016
    desertoflame

    Well I craft and sell a few +11 and +12 OJ Regina/ term weps as a hobby
    After the update I have been selling +11s for around 250m and +12s for 500m-600m, before the update it was 400m for +11 and 800m for +12.
    Ive seen +15 lvl 80s sell for a Bill so I'de assume +13 lvl 90s probably sell 1-1.2b still.
    And I am happy with +12, boomed to many too want to continue for +13 xD, RIP friend who boomed 3 +12s today and quit.
    That makes sense, since it was a 150 to 200mil increase for oj weapon prints at that time. This game has lost a lot of fun players because of that.


    image
    Mainichi said:

    +15 90s on West have already been going for 3-3.5b for a while now. I bought a +15 Regina Glaive over a year ago for 3.5b and there were some other weapons that sold for around that much as well (chains, staff, etc.)

    I should have tagged this thread for just East predictions, forgot West was in the mix. West is a whole other beast, you guys have way more active players than we do. Maybe if the Vindictus managers ever complete the server merge the prices will balance out a bit.
  • LaosduudeLaosduude
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    edited November 29, 2016
    Made a 14+ regina hammer thats perm bound now (second lvl 90 hammer only too lel), and i still don't always log on to do more than 5 battles atm rofl
  • DesireOfMineDesireOfMine
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    ArishaL
    ArishaL said:

    More threads for encouraging people to be happy with +12 instead off going for +15 and quitting pls.
    Here you go:
    Link to a thread: 'What if Vindictus had no equipment depending?'

    I've made it specially for you :3
  • DesireOfMineDesireOfMine
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    edited November 29, 2016
    Hustling
    Hustling said:

    This is an excellent response. A disagreement backed by actual data and numbers. You could also argue that since mat return has been removed, it'll lead to less instant restart enhancing. Thank you for that insight. I respect that prediction, and we'll see how it plays out in 6 months. It'll be interesting revisiting this by then.

    I'll update the main post with your prediction. By the way, have you been monitoring the status of Mysterious Shard prices and availability in KR? I know they have a much higher and active player base, but I'm curious as a comparison.
    I can log in to KR server now and check. I will share screenshots in here after i'm done.

    P.S. sorry for double post (one after another)
  • MochiSweetMochiSweet
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    nope don't buy the shards let its price down to 20m and I'll buy all of them :C
  • ElleaseEllease
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    Already maxed all weapon/armor shard stats, just need these new mats to drop to acceptable levels in pricing. Considering there is nothing left of high value in this game to farm, I'm hesitant to buy them since there's no way to farm the money back "instantly" anymore. The economy is shifting, and those with gold would be wise to sit on it.
  • TsiiiTsiii
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    Yknow back in the day, +10 used to be the best thing since sliced bread :\