EDIT:
New tallies can be found here before the stuff below gets updated:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nmuUdQncK0abVCFtd-XJYVEoKK-qq6sdbWvb7TZ6e8w
(need to clean up this page some time)
====
Here are the drop rates of items, some of the rarer items may or may not be accurate since their sample rate is much lower like in Enchant Scroll Pouchs, SP, AA and Dullahan Essence.
It was interesting to see that some items had consistent drop rates, like Solid/Stable/Smooth Ores all had exactly 18.4% while others were significantly lower yet also the same rate
and that Weapon scrolls all were more common
I actually got 24.77% of drops (excluding Damage to Boss cores) despite it seeming like the "carry gets nothing again while everyone else gets 1 each" in a lot of raids.
Fresh really is much more common than the other scrolls, while The Dead and Subdued really are much rarer.
Story raids have a slightly better drop rate than normal raids, I guess that is a nice incentive to help the newbies. It's not due to Goddess Guidance because all other sampled raids had that buff too.
CF is worth it in Level 100 raids.
CF is about even in 95 raids.
CF is not worth it in Niflheim and Level 90 raids.
So if you have 101+ LUK or if someone blessed, it's not worth buying CF unless it is a level 100 raid. If you have the base 100 LUK and no one blessed, buy CF for everything except Niflheim.
Damascus Steel covers about half of all profit gained from selling drops if you do all Level 90/95/100 raids.
Well that's all my thoughts for now.
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All 90, 95, 100 raids sampled used QB, CF, blessing and had Goddess Guidance additional core buff.
Note that the drop rate is for the party. It's still a quarter chance for you to get it. e.g. drop rate 4% is 1% for you to get it
====================================================================================================
* Level 90 raids have a 12.5% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 95 raids have a 25% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 100 raids have a 80% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 100 raids have a 40% chance to drop 1 OJ per run, where 45% of that is Ore, 55% of that is Essence
* When a Legendary Ore drops, it's 19% Solid/Keen/Stable/Perfect, 12% Smooth/Lightweight
* When an Astera Essence drops, it's 20% Head/Hand, 12% Feet/Chest/Greaves, 25% Weap
* So approx 3.4% Solid/Keen/Stable/Perfect, 2.2% Smooth/Lightweight, 4.4% Head/Hand, 2.6% Feet/Chest/Greaves, 5.4% Weapon
* Elchulus drops Elchulus Essence in 2.5% of runs
* Macha drops Macha Essence in 2.5% of runs
* Dullahan drops Dullahan Essence in 5% of runs.
* Aes drops Aes Essence in 3% of runs
* Eternal Legacy drops in 0.75% of Level 95 raids
* Essence Box drops in 27% of Level 95 raids
* Mysterious Shard Grade 1 drop in 24% of RAR
* Mysterious Shard Grade 2 drop in 8% of RAR
* Abyssal Shard Grade 1 drop in 17% of AA
* Abyssal Shard Grade 2 drop in 3% of AA
* Sealed/Truth drops in 1% of Arcana and does not drop anywhere else
* Chaotic/Conviction drops in 2% of Dulla/Aes/Rupa and does not drop in Arcana
* Heartless/Capture/Infinite/Barrier/Weeping/Soul drops in 1% of Dulla/Aes/Rupa and does not drop in Arcana
* Fresh drops in 2% of Level 90 raids
* Immoral/Judgment/Spirited/Echoing/Memorable drops in 1.5% of Level 90 raids
* Expeditionary/Reinforced/Righteous/Stigma/Temporal drops in 0.85% of Level 90 raids
* Subdued/TheDead drops in 0.4% of Level 90 raids
* Eochaid Essence drops in 5.5% of Eochaid
* Abomination Essence drops in 0.5% of Abomination
* Level 90 Weap/Armor Essence:
* Niflheim raids have a 12% chance to drop an Exquisite Bracelet Gem Box.
* Unlike Damascus Steel, it is possible for 1 person to get 2 Exquisite Bracelet Gem Box in 1 run, same with Superior Masterpiece Gem Box.
====================================================================================================
From here, the sample rate is quite low, so the results are more likely to be inaccurate.
* Level 90/95/100 raids no longer drop Superior Masterpiece Gem Box. They previously had about 15% chance, now it's 0%.
* Currently only Special Raids drop Superior Masterpiece Gem Box.
* Special raids
currently have the following drop rate: Enchant Scroll Pouch 12.5%, Masterpiece Gem Box 60%, Superior Masterpiece Gem Box 20%, Damascus Steel 17.5%
* (Previously the drop rates was about Enchant Scroll Pouch 16%, Essence Box 4%, Damascus Steel 12%)
* In 86 Enchant Scroll Pouch, approx:
8% Echoing/Heartless/Weeping/Immoral/Judgment/Temporal/Stigma
4% Subdued/TheDead/Memorable/Reinforced/Righteous/Spirited/Chaotic
2% Expeditionary/Fresh
* Manus often drops Perfect/Smooth/Solid Chunks, but can drop Stable/Lightweight very rarely .
* Conall often drops Keen/Perfect , but can also drop all other Chunks.
* Conall/Manus always appears when at least 1 person in the party has not killed Conall/Manus yet for that "Today" battle.
* Each sub-boss/boss has a 20% chance to drop an OJ.
====================================================================================================
Other:
* Partholon Vanguard Rare Relic Box
* Normal Gem Box
* Superior Gem Box
Sample size currently very low, likely to be inaccurate.
* Exquisite Gem Box
Sample size currently very low, likely to be inaccurate.
* Superior Masterpiece Gem Box (Why is it called Gem Box and not Bracelet Box)
* LUK and Luck Blessing
You will always get +1 core with at least 1 LUK in the first core.
After that, it is a 1.5% chance to get additional cores per LUK with the remaining 3 mormal cores.
If you get more than 4 normal cores in RAR, LUK cores will still only be based of 4 normal cores just like all other raids. Except Niflheim where you can get up to 5 Luck cores since the Key counts as the 5th normal core.
Luck Blessing Stones increase LUK by 7.77
For whether it is worth buying a Cadet Badge or not:
It's always worth it to buy a Cadet Badge even if you do just RAR. Recommended to stock up when it is cheap.
Note: +1 core to LUK rate is the LUK required to increase the average amount of cores by 1.
Note: RAR drop rates in this table is from before
this update with the removal of all the dragons/rupa/lak/spiders/bear. I believe
the drop rates of bottles have decreased significantly but it is hard to gather drop rates because they also removed letting us see other people's rare drops in RAR.
Old version (contains previous values)
https://pastebin.com/raw/nRTPgvgv 
Comments
2. Have you changed your raid rotation based on this information?
1. I didn't use a table to tally since I wanted to keep track of many details of each item, so a list in Notepad++ with the name of the item, location, core type, mine or not. As well as a tally of which raids were done and how many for that day. 1 line is 1 day, no typos thanks to the autocomplete text feature, kept the syntax consistent; so I can use RegEx to count in whatever way I want it to.
EDIT: using Excel.
2. No, but that's mostly just because I don't really want to raid on any other char except main since the speed of the run is important too. But if I didn't have enough time to do everything on 1 char, I would prioritise Level 100 raids due to their nice drop rate, then 95, then RAR and SP. But just do whatever is available and get more runs done.
It should be the same if not slower actually, the time it takes to set up the cf and sit for buffs takes a while.
That's what I said in the first line :P
Hmmm... I did record which type of core each drop was, so if I filter out for normal cores and then get the ratio based on the total cores... I get x2.15, yeah looks like guild core is much lower and cf/vip is slightly lower too.
Ok, then, let say, you get 4 normal drops, and then another +1 for each bonus excluding dmg core for 6 drops, giving a multiplier of x2.5... I end up with these numbers if I only count normal drops then x2.5 to the drop rate.
* Level 90 raids have a 15.5% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 95 raids have a 24% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 100 raids have a 82% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 100 raids have a 35% chance to drop 1 OJ per run, where 40% of that is Ore, 60% of that is Essence
* When a Legendary Ore drops, it's 20% Solid/Keen/Stable/Perfect, 7% Smooth, 13% Lightweight
* When an Astera Essence drops, it's 10% Hand/Feet/Chest/Greaves, 25% Weap/Head
* Elchulus drops Elchulus Essence in 1.8% of runs
* Macha drops Macha Essence in 1.8% of runs
* Dullahan drops Dullahan Essence in 0% of runs (didn't get any in normal cores, can we assume 1.8% too?)
* Aes drops Aes Essence in 2.5% of runs
* Eternal Legacy drops in 1.25% of Level 95 raids
* Essence Box drops in 21% of Level 95 raids
* Sealed/Truth drops in 0% of Arcana and does not drop anywhere else (didn't get any in normal cores)
* Chaotic/Conviction/Capture/Barrier drops in 1% of Dulla/Aes/Rupa and does not drop in Arcana
* Heartless/Infinite/Weeping/Soul drops in 0.66% of Dulla/Aes/Rupa and does not drop in Arcana
* Eochaid Essence drops in 5.5% of Eochaid
* Abomination Essence drops in 0% of Abomination (didn't get any in normal cores)
* Fresh/Memorable drops in 2% of Level 90 raids
* Memorable drops in 1.8% of Level 90 raids
* Immoral/Judgment/Spirited/Echoing/Expeditionary/Reinforced//Stigma/Temporal drops in 1.4-1.6% of Level 90 raids
* Righteous drops in 0.9% of Level 90 raids
* Subdued/TheDead drops in 0.23% of Level 90 raids
It can be too soon to say that.
As for the drop rates, the later post should be less accurate as the sample size is like a third of the initial post.
If I count only the drops I get, since I get all additional cores, I get a consistent result of the normal cores having a higher chance to get better items per core.
Normal Gem Box and Superior Masterpiece Gem Box data have been added to a new section.
As for the Exquisite Gem Box, the current sample size is very small so it could be just coincidental, but so far me and a couple people who also keep a count all seem to say that the box is rigged so that INT classes get more Exquisite Diamonds and STR classes get more Exquisite Sapphires. At about double the rate. Is there anyone else keeping an exact count want to agree or disagree?
I currently obtained 5 Diamond, 10 Sapphire, 7 Emerald, 5 Ruby.
The box being rigged by class type is just a myth that is perpetuated by more STR than INT chars and much higher drop rates of Sapphire over Diamond.
I've witnessed the drop rate is weighted as such:
1. Ruby
2. Sapphire
3. Emerald
4. Diamond
That looks like the weighting for Leather/Copper/Silver bracelets.
I only know of 1 INT class who kept count, and she said she couldn't get many Sapphires. Which is why I asked for more people.
So 7.77 or just 8, hard to tell. But 7 is the lucky number in Korea.
Anyways, buy CF for everything if you have the base 100 LUK and no one blessed. Otherwise if you have 101+ LUK or if someone blessed, it's not worth buying CF unless it is a level 100 raid.
For whether it is worth buying a Cadet Badge or not:
Level 90 Weap/Armor Essence, Partholon Vanguard Rare Relic Box and Superior Masterpiece Gem Box tables updated with a lot more samples.
260 Agares runs:
Smooth 3.37%
Solid 3.37%
Keen 3.00%
Stable 3.75%
Lightweight 4.12%
Perfect 3.00%
Weap 3.75%
Head 3.37%
Chest 1.50%
Feet 1.50%
Leg 1.12%
Hand 1.12%
Sealed 1.12%
Truth 1.12%
Steel 69.68%
Box 13.55%
Succession 1.12%
Weird that Steel drop rate is lower than the other Level 100 raids, but I suppose it would make sense because it also drops sealed/truth/succession.
Guess I'll start to track the Steel drop rates of each Lv 100 raid individually now.
EDIT: A new tally of Agares shows his Steel drop rate to be the same as Claire/Elch/Macha. However Brilliant Lugh has a low Steel drop rate. Coincidence? or are they actually lower while they are "new" raids.
Want to add that in einrach this also applies, whenever I get a donegal battle in today's battle I spam it 20 times and I get atleast 1 chunk out of these 20 bosses (20%/4 = 5%). Pretty good farm if someone wants to try it, you can kill these bosses in 2 minutes and restart battle instantly if you store the retry message before result screen appears, and you also get 20 honor medals (making it better than doing dailies), downside is that you can't do it all days.
Just remember to list consecutive runs, not like 1 run whenever you happen remember or when you see lots of drops. Also, count party drops, not just the drops you get.
New tallies can be found here before the opening post gets updated:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nmuUdQncK0abVCFtd-XJYVEoKK-qq6sdbWvb7TZ6e8w
For Ein, I stopped doing that when bots flooded the MP with cheap chunks. It is worth it for the honor medals if you have time and need seals I suppose.
Would also be interesting to see a comparison between Nilf and Special (post-event) for Masterpiece Bracelet Box rates.
Only Steel drop rate was increased during those 2 weeks according to the news, the rest should be the same. (However, it seems like I only saw x2 steel drop rate for the first week only)
The drop rates are very bad for how long it takes to complete the raid even with the coupons and shop. Without the increase drop rate and shop I don't really want to do the special raid any more. All other raids take priority.
Currently the drop rate for special should be about this:
Pouch 12.5%, Bracelet Box 60%, Special Bracelet Box 20%, Steel 17.5%
I also don't do Niflheim any more. I have quite high exquisite gem stats already so I don't get anything from doing them now.
Anyone who needs bracelets and gems is welcome to take over for those.
Not only that but we lost the possibility to obtain golden braceletes everywhere else, so it was a really bad patch overall.
Btw was going to ask if you're planning to get the droprate of guild seal chests.
Not only are the steel drop rate bad, the other rare drops (pouch and box) are most likely worthless too with a tiny chance to get something good from them.
I don't buy them, but I know a few in my guild are tallying those.