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Happened to me too. Had 4 fragments (seen in my inventory in picture), and was only 1 dot away from getting 5/5. Just another reason in the bucket not to give $$$/NX to this game company. It'll keep my 4 year streak going of shutting my wallet
I wound up with 4 fragments and was scarcely half way around the board. Dice were loaded. The number of 1's and 2's was statistically improbable. They cut the deadline for the event way too close.
I ran 10 chars for this event, all got 5-6 fragments, except 1 at 7 fragments. From this, statistically, the dice were not loaded.
You need 30x5 = 150 total
There was 22 days with 3 per day so 66 dice in total.
It is fair.
The chance to get 10 fragments is 0.00002454099486481193%
The chance to get 5 fragments is 99.99999992393842%
That being said, if you do:
13 days for 39 dice, you have a 11.18% chance to get 5 fragments
14 days for 42 dice, you have a 41.09% chance to get 5 fragments
15 days for 45 dice, you have a 75.69% chance to get 5 fragments
16 days for 48 dice, you have a 94.10% chance to get 5 fragments
17 days for 51 dice, you have a 99.15% chance to get 5 fragments
They were quite lenient and gave you an extra 6-7 days. Can only blame yourself for not participating in enough days.
If you actually did 17 days for 51 dice or more, then OK, you can complain about your luck.
I ran 10 chars for this event, all got 5-6 fragments, except 1 at 7 fragments. From this, statistically, the dice were not loaded.
You need 30x5 = 150 total
There was 22 days with 3 per day so 66 dice in total.
It is fair.
The chance to get 10 fragments is 0.00002454099486481193%
The chance to get 5 fragments is 99.99999992393842%
That being said, if you do:
13 days for 39 dice, you have a 11.18% chance to get 5 fragments
14 days for 42 dice, you have a 41.09% chance to get 5 fragments
15 days for 45 dice, you have a 75.69% chance to get 5 fragments
16 days for 48 dice, you have a 94.10% chance to get 5 fragments
17 days for 51 dice, you have a 99.15% chance to get 5 fragments
They were quite lenient and gave you an extra 6-7 days. Can only blame yourself for not participating in enough days.
If you actually did 17 days for 51 dice or more, then OK, you can complain about your luck.
I actually failed one day, but all the others I did with my friends and one of them finished the event with 1 full coupon and 3 fragments... I dont believe I could get the same with only a day diference... Thats why I say I'm unlucky...
I ran 10 chars for this event, all got 5-6 fragments, except 1 at 7 fragments. From this, statistically, the dice were not loaded.
You need 30x5 = 150 total
There was 22 days with 3 per day so 66 dice in total.
It is fair.
The chance to get 10 fragments is 0.00002454099486481193%
The chance to get 5 fragments is 99.99999992393842%
That being said, if you do:
13 days for 39 dice, you have a 11.18% chance to get 5 fragments
14 days for 42 dice, you have a 41.09% chance to get 5 fragments
15 days for 45 dice, you have a 75.69% chance to get 5 fragments
16 days for 48 dice, you have a 94.10% chance to get 5 fragments
17 days for 51 dice, you have a 99.15% chance to get 5 fragments
They were quite lenient and gave you an extra 6-7 days. Can only blame yourself for not participating in enough days.
If you actually did 17 days for 51 dice or more, then OK, you can complain about your luck.
Always gotta be that guy who thinks because his luck was good, you don't have a complaint. I missed a grand total of three days of the event. Which by your metric puts me at over a 99% chance to have 5 fragments. Only thing is I have no idea where you're getting your percentages because with nexon rng generators the odds are never even. The only sure way to get 5 fragments if you had to move 150 spaces would be if you had 150 dice. And I did not get to 5 frags on either of the two characters I was doing this on so you can throw your "statistics" right down the toilet. I could believe this was just me falling into a 1% chance of failure but neither of my own characters got to five frags and both stopped at about the same place mid board so I am just going to assume that's less a case of bad luck and actually standard.
I almost dare say that you are lying about one character of yours getting seven fragments. But RNG is RNG. I got a gold bracelet out of a grey bracelet box. What were the odds of that? So the RNG giveth and the RNG taketh away. Whatever. Grats to you, I guess. If I had done those 3 days maybe I would have gotten my 5 frags, I realize that and you have a point, but maybe I wouldn't have either. That's why I say they cut the deadline way too close.
Always gotta be that guy who thinks because his luck was good, you don't have a complaint. [...] And I did not get to 5 frags on either of the two characters I was doing this on so you can throw your "statistics" right down the toilet.
"Your anecdotal evidence is meaningless, but I don't trust your statistics because of my anecdotal evidence!"
You're right that the dice may have been loaded and those probabilities might be wrong. Or they might be right, and your results are just outliers.
I used https://anydice.com/ for those. The lower amounts I can check and they do hold up. I'm not sure how to check the high amounts like 66 but I assume the D&D players know what they are doing.
Now, those are chances for complete randomness, which doesn't really happen in computers.
Considering how the range of results is wider than it should be, perhaps the roll values are weighted, but they aren't weighted to be lower since people do get 6-7 fragments too.
They could be weighted off the seed values that you get when you log in (resets 10 mins after logging out or so I've heard).
Although, I suspect that there is also a permanent seed for your character at creation considering the (lack of) luck of enhancing some people consistently have.
Did the people who participated in most days and didn't get it, roll many die in very few days, or did they do a few rolls daily/often?
fwiw, I did the event every single day and got crappy rolls, but was barely able to get 5 fragments a couple days before the event ended. The 6 dice I rolled after getting my 5th fragment rolled 1's. And yes, I mean 6 1's in a row, which should be statistically improbable.
I used https://anydice.com/ for those. The lower amounts I can check and they do hold up. I'm not sure how to check the high amounts like 66 but I assume the D&D players know what they are doing.
Now, those are chances for complete randomness, which doesn't really happen in computers.
Considering how the range of results is wider than it should be, perhaps the roll values are weighted, but they aren't weighted to be lower since people do get 6-7 fragments too.
They could be weighted off the seed values that you get when you log in (resets 10 mins after logging out or so I've heard).
Although, I suspect that there is also a permanent seed for your character at creation considering the (lack of) luck of enhancing some people consistently have.
Did the people who participated in most days and didn't get it, roll many die in very few days, or did they do a few rolls daily/often?
I would wait until I had small "batches" of dice. Like between 6 and 15. Then I'd roll them all at once and start collecting again.
Comments
You need 30x5 = 150 total
There was 22 days with 3 per day so 66 dice in total.
It is fair.
The chance to get 10 fragments is 0.00002454099486481193%
The chance to get 5 fragments is 99.99999992393842%
That being said, if you do:
13 days for 39 dice, you have a 11.18% chance to get 5 fragments
14 days for 42 dice, you have a 41.09% chance to get 5 fragments
15 days for 45 dice, you have a 75.69% chance to get 5 fragments
16 days for 48 dice, you have a 94.10% chance to get 5 fragments
17 days for 51 dice, you have a 99.15% chance to get 5 fragments
They were quite lenient and gave you an extra 6-7 days. Can only blame yourself for not participating in enough days.
If you actually did 17 days for 51 dice or more, then OK, you can complain about your luck.
I actually failed one day, but all the others I did with my friends and one of them finished the event with 1 full coupon and 3 fragments... I dont believe I could get the same with only a day diference... Thats why I say I'm unlucky...
Always gotta be that guy who thinks because his luck was good, you don't have a complaint. I missed a grand total of three days of the event. Which by your metric puts me at over a 99% chance to have 5 fragments. Only thing is I have no idea where you're getting your percentages because with nexon rng generators the odds are never even. The only sure way to get 5 fragments if you had to move 150 spaces would be if you had 150 dice. And I did not get to 5 frags on either of the two characters I was doing this on so you can throw your "statistics" right down the toilet. I could believe this was just me falling into a 1% chance of failure but neither of my own characters got to five frags and both stopped at about the same place mid board so I am just going to assume that's less a case of bad luck and actually standard.
I almost dare say that you are lying about one character of yours getting seven fragments. But RNG is RNG. I got a gold bracelet out of a grey bracelet box. What were the odds of that? So the RNG giveth and the RNG taketh away. Whatever. Grats to you, I guess. If I had done those 3 days maybe I would have gotten my 5 frags, I realize that and you have a point, but maybe I wouldn't have either. That's why I say they cut the deadline way too close.
You're right that the dice may have been loaded and those probabilities might be wrong. Or they might be right, and your results are just outliers.
Fwiw I only did one char, and I also got 7 fragments. Only 4 spaces away from an 8th.
I used https://anydice.com/ for those. The lower amounts I can check and they do hold up. I'm not sure how to check the high amounts like 66 but I assume the D&D players know what they are doing.
Now, those are chances for complete randomness, which doesn't really happen in computers.
Considering how the range of results is wider than it should be, perhaps the roll values are weighted, but they aren't weighted to be lower since people do get 6-7 fragments too.
They could be weighted off the seed values that you get when you log in (resets 10 mins after logging out or so I've heard).
Although, I suspect that there is also a permanent seed for your character at creation considering the (lack of) luck of enhancing some people consistently have.
Did the people who participated in most days and didn't get it, roll many die in very few days, or did they do a few rolls daily/often?
I would wait until I had small "batches" of dice. Like between 6 and 15. Then I'd roll them all at once and start collecting again.