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Trying to understand guild fires

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  • Question2Question2
    Vindictus Rep: 3,235
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    It is impossible to do a proper cost benefit analysis without knowing the exact drop rates involved. For example lets say you get an extra rare drop after 100 runs which costs 6.5m in campfire fees. But we dont know the odds of the rare drop...it could be something worthless like a Fresh ES in which case you make a loss, or it could be an extra The Dead ES in which case you make a massive profit.

    But lets say a veteran is using a luck badge, VIP and luck blessing (free from events/AP shop). Going from 5 to 6 cores base is an extra 20% chance to get something. Off the top of my head i think campfire is an additional +5 luck which works out to an extra 7.5% for an additional core. Of course, 27.5% of a very small number is still pretty small.
  • DancingStarDancingStar
    Vindictus Rep: 1,695
    Posts: 85
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    edited March 1, 2018
    ikevi wrote: »
    Nokaubure wrote: »
    You can't compare campfire buff with cadet badge. As long as you have > 100 luk, you always get +1 core, people should have infinite luk blessings considering a bunch of events in the past gave enough to have 999 and they cost AP too. A luk blessing gives +7 luk which translates to +10.5% chance to get a white core for each black core the boss drops. If you use a cadet badge, it adds +15% to that chance, additive. Campfire buff gives a guaranted +1 core which stacks with the > 100 luk formula, plus +7.5% of white core.

    In short, campfire is useful because of the +1 core , the other buffs are secondary improvements.

    Cool a response that has some argument.

    So I think you get me a bit wrong on what I am saying about the luck.

    What I often see are folks with 100 luck not using blessing, and not using a badge still spending 65k per run for that extra core. You basically just agreed for me that again doing those 2 things are much more cost effective than buying the fire buff.


    Yep. Luck > 100 = auto 1 extra core + [1.5*(luck-100)*(core count -1)]extra core. So cadet badge on a regular 4 core raid= on average 1.45 extra cores (whatever that means ;-). If you are just running the 6 raids each day for 30 days that means you are paying ~20 k per run. Course most folks do other runs, so the cadet badge is much much better bang for your buck.

    The luck blessing again is just free. Either you spend ap for them on the key maps (most folks are flush with ap now that we can't double boom) or as you said old events have given us a ton of blessings.

    Or are you trying to say that 117 luck for at most 20k a raid (if you only run 6 raids a day all of them the meh drop S3s now...) is somehow worse than a guaranteed +1 core? (Because 117 luck should give you on average~1.8 extra cores in a 4 core raid. Course RNG is rng so results will vary ;-)


    First of all I'd like to know where did u get that formula: "Luck > 100 = auto 1 extra core + [1.5*(luck-100)*(core count -1)]extra core"
    I'm seriously interested if it's just speculation or you got it from any reliable source.

    I read some interesting comments like the luck stat being just a mind trick/placebo which might be wrong but could even be true...
    If u watch at the RNG boxes with five choices, i think everyone knows 'the choice' concept is just an illusion same as the spinning wheel cause the items have a rank and different rates. Who actually can say the evil cores aren't just an illusion and the rare dropping is decided by something totally out of the core counts but displayed AS one of those cores in the system messages?

    But back to the topic, I'm wondering another thing since a while:

    Lately we have several chance to get many additional cores (Events with +1 +2 cores, 40% DPS core, Luck/Divine bless core, Campfire core, Pet core, Quick battle Core, break off core).
    With all these cores (Pet core doesn't work for raids but doesn't matter), we should at least notice an increasing in the drop rates hence more scrolls, rares around, and prices on marketplace. And If u consider 90% of ppl do Quick battles and use at least 1 bless something is wrong.
    To be honest i don't see all this rares flooding, and scrolls/oranges on s3 are still quite rare and pricy despite the lot of cores we have now.

    So my question is: Are we sure the additional cores really add 1 more chance to get something rare?
    Because my impression is, that to prevent a flooding of too many rares around which could ruin the economy later on, the Drop rates have been actually adjusted keeping in consideration of the fact we have ALWAYS more cores now. Everyone does QB, everyone use bless, everyone use camp (in worthy raids)
    etc etc...

    In other words IF in the past we had 4 cores x raid and the chance of getting a rare was 1% (just as example, i don't know the real drop rates),
    nowadays you DON'T have the same 1% on 6 7 cores (which would result in many more rares around) but that 1% has been nerfed to something lower in a way that we can have the SAME rate as before but with more cores.

    They already did something similar to that with the enhancement system. They claimed the chance of getting a +15 (despite the higher enhancements have been nerfed) is the same as before. Which is 'kinda' true. Some low enhancement rates have been buffed while some others have been nerfed. The result on the long run should be the same as before.

    Now if what i'm saying is true (and i hope is not), it would mean that we MUST use all or at least the most possible core buffs (dps core, camp core, luck core, qb core, break off core) to have a chance of getting the same drop rates as in the past because the actual drop rate has been "tweaked" keeping in consideration these new additional cores in a way that the final drop rate didn't change at all through time.

    I hope someone got what i mean and in case enlight me more about it.

    p.s. I don't know also why some ppl talk about 'chance of additional core'. There's no 'chance' as far as i know whenever you use a bless, camp or whatever, you actually GET 1 core about that, and you can clearly see that in the system message.
  • ikeviikevi
    Vindictus Rep: 3,670
    Posts: 748
    Member
    edited March 1, 2018

    First of all I'd like to know where did u get that formula: "Luck > 100 = auto 1 extra core + [1.5*(luck-100)*(core count -1)]extra core"
    I'm seriously interested if it's just speculation or you got it from any reliable source.

    That has been the formula for a long long time. Heck it is even in the vindictus wiki under character stats. https://vindictus.gamepedia.com/Character_Stats


    As for the chance of a rare... I honestly assume they change those odds. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if it is dynamic, but no one know that. (The how many white cores you get vrs black is fairly easy to just record and see over time. Anything else is basically impossible to guess.)

    IE I can tell you I didn't see any increased odds in the aby runs... so my guess is they increased the odds from say .1% drop rate to something like .11%. Sure a 10% increase but still nothing in the long run ;-)