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What exactly did Brynn do?
I know he's tied into what happened to Ainle and what's in the crypts and Reily freaks out about him making a mistake in the past... but what did he do? Is he the one responsible for all the dimensions opening or is it the Royal Army?
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Even magicians like Jaralth of the Magician's Guild who is not part of the Pontiff's Court is in league with them, or at least has knowledge of some of their secrets and keeps them ('cause he'd be chopped to pieces if he talked). To my knowledge the two magicians with no relations to the Pontiff's Court are Brynn and Riley (Though Riley might have his run ins with the Court in the past).
Brynn, in his youth found out that Tieve was the oracle of the prophecy, and since he fancied Tieve he tried to summon Morrighan so she wouldn't be sent body and soul to Erinn. At that he ended up summoning Glas Ghaibhleann and the beast nearly killed Brynn if not for the intervention of Riley.
After Riley sealed the beast, the Pontiff's Court attempted their own version of the summoning ritual which ended just as badly tearing dimensions apart and summoning Vampires into the world. So the Royal Army was not involved, and have no knowledge of the corruption of the Pontiff's Court.
In fact, MANY people knew the prophecy was a lie. Riley told a young Brynn that truth so Brynn decided to be an idiot and summon Morrighan. Tieve was with him at the time and Morrighan ended up possessing her, which is what caused her to start fading toward TIR NA NOG (not Erinn; Erinn is the game world, Tir Na Nog is paradise, blame the new translators for messing that up since the game had it right during beta). Tieve then had divine power which got her picked up as an oracle - she was NOT an oracle before Brynn accidentally got her possessed by Morrighan.
The Court didn't know Tieve was Morrighan, because they were hacks, and that's why they summoned Glas as an accident when they did the same ritual as Brynn. The only person who knew that Tieve was Morrighan in the Court was Gilliam and he hid it from the others; this is why he let Verafim know that Seanna was disposable since he knew she wasn't the oracle. Either that, or Gilliam didn't know Tieve was Morrighan and he was just an idiot. But the rest of the Court had no clue at all.
The Court sealed Glas, but they did a terrible job and left a rift open that the vampires came through. Again, Brynn didn't know about Glas and was surprised that it existed, realizing that its existence was due to the Court and therefore the Court had left Ainle open to vampires; Riley figured this out pretty early on when he lamented how "those idiots" (the Court) had messed things up.
Man, I gotta tell you that is wrong as hell. If you reach the Season 3 Glas episode you'll see that Brynn is regaining his memories of summoning Glas to save Tieve from becoming Morrighan. Furthermore, the player character even thinks to himself/herself "It seems that Brynn doesn't remember summoning Glas Ghaibhlean" during season 3. It's quite explicit that it was Brynn who attempted to summon the Goddess and instead got a giant leathery monster with 4 arms, hooks and wings.
So, Brynn = Glas Ghaibhelean, Pontiff's Court = Vampires and the **** up of Ainle.
Furthermore, the Oracle thing might be right the way you put it, but Tieve was always Morrighan, or destined to become Morrighan. The reason the court attemped to summon the Goddess but instead ended up summoning Vampires was to kill the Goddess and to keep their status quo as messengers of the divine with absolute authority.
Regarding Seanna, Gilliam told Verafim that she was the true oracle because the Pontiff was especially interested in her (because she was carrying a large erg that was filled with Cromm's power - explained during season 2), so Verafim intercepted her, but once he found out it wasn't the real oracle he ate the erg and erased the oracle's memories.
About Erinn and Tír na nÓg, Tír na nÓg is the land of the gods in Mabinogi, but while Vindictus was supposed to be a prequel to Mabinogi, the plot line has since changed so much that it's safe to say they are separate stories, thus it's not wrong to have Erinn has paradise. (Though in the early stages when this was supposed to be a prequel, there might have been translations errors, though I doubt it.)
EDIT: After speaking with the local KR veteran ex-player and fellow guildie, he clarified something.
The ONLY game that's not connected to Mabi/Vindi plot is Duel. Mabi, Vindi, and Arena all happen in the same timeline, and the plotholes/retcons by the new writers should be ignored.
Also, the game world was referred to as Erinn and paradise as Tir Na Nog during beta and first release, so that's what I'm going by as official. Mis-re-translations should be ignored.
After reviewing the quest, you're right that Brynn summoned Glas. However, this doesn't mean Tieve was born as Morrighan; there's still a chance that he sent Morrighan into Tieve during the ritual. If you can find evidence to the contrary, please do so - and not from S3 or the revised S2.
Tieve may not have been born as Morrighan, though I believe she was, if not, she was "connected" to her or started to become her since before the attempted Ritual by Brynn (when he was a child). Brynn only did the ritual because he knew she was the oracle of the prophecy and wanted to save her knowing what it means for her. Since that is not part of the official prophecy, I'm willing to assume that Brynn was in contact with the Silent Brotherhood since they are the ones with all that knowledge (though Riley might have known since then and just not gave a flying f), if not, he figured it out himself. So to summarize, Tieve had to be Morrighan since her childhood, with no evidence of a catalyst in the story about how that came to happen, it's not certain that she was born as the oracle of prophecy, but there aren't many other explanations (or any that I know of).
It is known in the Dullahan episode that the Lord Glas was summoned to its ruins because Enok (The black and white magician from the court) summoned it there, Brynn doesn't remember summoning the creature due to his memory block with all things Tieve related (the reason why he attempted it in the first place). The explanation you give in the "Speculation Foreshadowing After Dullahan" opened my eyes in some aspects, especially in regards to Glas and Braha, it is unknown what kind of injuries Brynn sustained, but they might be related to the existence of Erinn, seeing as after Elchulus is released he can move about. On another note, and bear in mind it's a bit spoilery, I believe the magician Enok is actually dead and resurrected by the Pontiff's court in a similar manner Ulchas was. His black and white sprite is similar to the ones used by characters that are dead during side quests.