New tallies can be found here before the stuff below gets updated:
(need to clean up this page some time)
Here are the drop rates of items, some of the rarer items may or may not be accurate since their sample rate is much lower like in Enchant Scroll Pouchs, SP, AA and Dullahan Essence.
It was interesting to see that some items had consistent drop rates, like Solid/Stable/Smooth Ores all had exactly 18.4% while others were significantly lower yet also the same rate
and that Weapon scrolls all were more common
I actually got 24.77% of drops (excluding Damage to Boss cores) despite it seeming like the "carry gets nothing again while everyone else gets 1 each" in a lot of raids.
Fresh really is much more common than the other scrolls, while The Dead and Subdued really are much rarer.
Story raids have a slightly better drop rate than normal raids, I guess that is a nice incentive to help the newbies. It's not due to Goddess Guidance because all other sampled raids had that buff too.
CF is worth it in Level 100 raids.
CF is about even in 95 raids.
CF is not worth it in Niflheim and Level 90 raids.
So if you have 101+ LUK or if someone blessed, it's not worth buying CF unless it is a level 100 raid. If you have the base 100 LUK and no one blessed, buy CF for everything except Niflheim.
Damascus Steel covers about half of all profit gained from selling drops if you do all Level 90/95/100 raids.
Well that's all my thoughts for now.
Below is the summarised data of the results from 50 days of raids, 1082 90, 397 95, 420 100, 183 RAR, 77 AA, 99 SP.
All 90, 95, 100 raids sampled used QB, CF, blessing and had Goddess Guidance additional core buff.
Note that the drop rate is for the party. It's still a quarter chance for you to get it. e.g. drop rate 4% is 1% for you to get it
* Story raids have a 5% better drop rate than normal raids
* Level 90 raids have a 15% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 95 raids have a 30% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 100 raids have a 85% chance to drop 1 Damascus Steel per run
* Level 100 raids have a 40% chance to drop 1 OJ per run, where 45% of that is Ore, 55% of that is Essence
* When a Legendary Ore drops, it's 19% Solid/Keen/Stable/Perfect, 12% Smooth/Lightweight
* When an Astera Essence drops, it's 20% Head/Hand, 12% Feet/Chest/Greaves, 25% Weap
* So approx 3.4% Solid/Keen/Stable/Perfect, 2.2% Smooth/Lightweight, 4.4% Head/Hand, 2.6% Feet/Chest/Greaves, 5.4% Weapon
* Elchulus drops Elchulus Essence in 2.5% of runs
* Macha drops Macha Essence in 2.5% of runs
* Dullahan drops Dullahan Essence in 1% of runs. EDIT: The drop rate for this seems to be significantly increased to 10% since being added to the Seal Shop.
* Aes drops Aes Essence in 3% of runs
* Eternal Legacy drops in 0.75% of Level 95 raids
* Essence Box drops in 27% of Level 95 raids
* Mysterious Shard Grade 1 drop in 24% of RAR
* Mysterious Shard Grade 2 drop in 8% of RAR
* Abyssal Shard Grade 1 drop in 17% of AA
* Abyssal Shard Grade 2 drop in 3% of AA
* Sealed/Truth drops in 1% of Arcana and does not drop anywhere else
* Chaotic/Conviction drops in 2% of Dulla/Aes/Rupa and does not drop in Arcana
* Heartless/Capture/Infinite/Barrier/Weeping/Soul drops in 1% of Dulla/Aes/Rupa and does not drop in Arcana
* Fresh drops in 2% of Level 90 raids
* Immoral/Judgment/Spirited/Echoing/Memorable drops in 1.5% of Level 90 raids
* Expeditionary/Reinforced/Righteous/Stigma/Temporal drops in 0.85% of Level 90 raids
* Subdued/TheDead drops in 0.4% of Level 90 raids
* Eochaid Essence drops in 5.5% of Eochaid
* Abomination Essence drops in 0.5% of Abomination
* Level 90 Weap/Armor Essence:
* Niflheim raids have a 12% chance to drop an Exquisite Bracelet Gem Box.
* Unlike Damascus Steel, it is possible for 1 person to get 2 Exquisite Bracelet Gem Box in 1 run, same with Superior Masterpiece Gem Box.
From here, the sample rate is quite low, so the results are more likely to be inaccurate.
* Level 90/95/100 raids no longer drop Superior Masterpiece Gem Box. They previously had about 15% chance, now it's 0%.
* Currently only Special Raids drop Superior Masterpiece Gem Box.
* Special raids currently
have the following drop rate: Enchant Scroll Pouch 12.5%, Masterpiece Gem Box 60%, Superior Masterpiece Gem Box 20%, Damascus Steel 17.5%
* (Previously the drop rates was about Enchant Scroll Pouch 16%, Essence Box 4%, Damascus Steel 12%)
* In 53 Enchant Scroll Pouch:
* Manus often drops Perfect/Smooth/Solid Chunks, but can drop Stable/Lightweight very rarely .
* Conall often drops Keen/Perfect , but can also drop all other Chunks.
* Conall/Manus always appears when at least 1 person in the party has not killed Conall/Manus yet for that "Today" battle.
* Each sub-boss/boss has a 20% chance to drop an OJ.
* Partholon Vanguard Rare Relic Box
* Normal Gem Box
* Superior Gem Box
Sample size currently very low, likely to be inaccurate.
* Exquisite Gem Box
Sample size currently very low, likely to be inaccurate.
* Superior Masterpiece Gem Box (Why is it called Gem Box and not Bracelet Box)
* LUK and Luck Blessing
You will always get +1 core with at least 1 LUK in the first core.
After that, it is a 1.5% chance to get additional cores per LUK with the remaining 3 mormal cores.
If you get more than 4 normal cores in RAR, LUK cores will still only be based of 4 normal cores just like all other raids. Except Niflheim where you can get up to 5 Luck cores since the Key counts as the 5th normal core.
Luck Blessing Stones increase LUK by 7.77
For whether it is worth buying a Cadet Badge or not:
It's always worth it to buy a Cadet Badge even if you do just RAR. Recommended to stock up when it is cheap.
Note: +1 core to LUK rate is the LUK required to increase the average amount of cores by 1.